The global economy is going through a period of exceptional uncertainty that results from the consequences of the health crisis, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, climate change, a potential decoupling of trade between China and the United States, which would likely go along with a technological war and a new design of macroeconomic policies in Western countries, as well as more aggressive and protectionist industrial policies. Understanding the economic impacts of these shocks and analysing ongoing or looming global structural transformations are at the heart of our research.

The CEPII's Work Programme strives to find a balance between providing academic research, updating public databases and participating in the policy debate.

The development and streamlining of models and databases are an important part of our project. MIRAGE is evolving to better take into account global value chains as well as climate and energy issues. A new model for quantifying the dynamics of intersectoral adjustment in the labour market, in the context of the energy transition, is being built.

The CEPII continues its work on databases, notably with an update of the database on protection in services. A new database provides the balance sheets of the world's main central banks over a 50-year period.

The evolution of global value chains and multinational enterprises.
Geopolitical aspects of globalisation.
Environmental issues in international trade.
Competitiveness of the French economy and its specialisations.

Macroeconomic upheavals caused by the energy crisis and the return of inflation.
Macroeconomic issues and challenges of the energy transition.
Structural changes linked to external imbalances.
Transformations of the international monetary system.

Economic consequences of migration on employment at regional and sectoral levels (essential sectors and digital sector) and migration policies.
Cultural issues and opinion: interrelationships between migration and cultural norms, influence of media on the opinions and social behaviour of natives, weight of migration in electoral behaviour.

The interface between trade and environment: trade policy bias in favour of polluting industries, economic consequences of the transition to a low-carbon economy, use of the environmental argument to hide potential protectionist pressures.
Trade policy review: decoupling of global trade, African trade integration, sanctions related to the Ukrainian war, protected designation of origin, review of past trade policies.